Generally, move the ball!
It happens every game. One minute, the Milwaukee Bucks are playing free-flowing offense, and the next minute, they’re not. Crucially, the flow-less minutes seem to give the scoreboard operator a respite as the scoring dries up.
Although it certainly feels this way, I wanted to peek under the hood to see if the numbers bear it out. I think that doing so is particularly compelling due to the top-heavy nature of this iteration of the Bucks. With generational offensive talents in Giannis and Dame, do we really want them to pass the ball to… Kyle Kuzma?
To do so, I looked at player and team stats for different playtypes on NBA.com over the All-Star Break (rocket science, I know). The key number was points per possession (PPP), which I deemed “good” or “bad,” depending on whether it was above or below Milwaukee’s average PPP (which is 13th in the league at 1.14). Brief disclaimer: the playtype is what ends the possession: an isolation that turns into a spot-up counts as a spot-up. Certain playtypes have relatively low PPP because they are primarily used to set up other playtypes.
Let’s start with the antithesis of ball movement: isolation. The Bucks are actually relatively good in isolation (sixth in the league), but it only nets them 0.96 PPP. The best isolation scorer on the team—you guessed it, Dame—is at 1.06 (good for ninth in the league among folks with at least one isolation possession per game), still bad compared to the Bucks’ average PPP.
Other playtypes with limited ball movement are (a) pick and rolls when the ball handler keeps it and (b) post-ups. The Bucks don’t fare great on either: 0.92 PPP for the former and 0.96 for the latter. At least the former is good for ninth in the league; the latter has them at 19th. And no players are above the Bucks’ average PPP for either pick-and-roll ball handler or post-up.
In sum, not a great look for not moving the ball, although post-ups are the most glaring area for improvement compared to league-wide averages (GASP). That said, it’s a bit unfair to judge these numbers too harshly because of the aforementioned disclaimer: pick and rolls, for example, often lead to other good actions, but then they aren’t counted as PnRs.
Let’s look at the other side of ball movement. The Bucks’ best playtype is cutting, good for 1.27 PPP. However, they are only 19th in the league, indicating both that cuts are effective and there is room for improvement. The best cutting scorer on the team—you guessed it again, Giannis—is at 1.55 (fifth in the league among folks with at least one cut possession per game), and Brook is also up there at 1.50.
…but that’s the only playtype where the Bucks actually outpace their average PPP. They are at least decent when it comes to pick and rolls where the roller gets it (1.15 PPP, ninth in the league). Given that AJ Green, Taurean Prince, and Gary Trent Jr. are the three guys who outpace the Bucks’ average PPP here, I’m guessing this has more to do with pick-and-pops that are lumped into this playtype.
Otherwise, for spot-ups (1.08, sixth in the league), handoffs (1.07, top in the league!), and off-screen (0.90, 25th in the league) playtypes, the Bucks are below their average PPP. But they do relatively well for spot-ups and handoffs. For spot-ups, it’s thanks to the above threesome of three-point shooters, and for handoffs, it’s thanks to AJG, who is seventh in the league among folks with at least one handoff possession per game (which might explain why he gets all those handoffs!). There’s room for improvement with off-screen action, but Dame at least outpaces Milwaukee’s average PPP.
So what does this mean for the titular interrobang: Move the ball‽ Generally, move the ball! There are a wide variety of player-playtype combinations that rely on ball movement to generate above-average opportunities for the Bucks, but no combinations involving playtypes that do not rely on ball movement.
Still, the stats above reveal strengths that the Bucks can exploit and weaknesses that they can improve. Whether we like it or not, they are relatively good in isolation and when the pick-and-roll ball handler keeps it. That doesn’t mean that they should be the first arrow pulled from the quiver, but they are useful to have when the shot clock winds down, legs get tired, and the calendar gets closer to June.