Milwaukee Bucks links for your perusal on December 30th, 2024
As the Milwaukee Bucks 2024-2025 season settles into the grinding portion of the 82 game slate, we’re going to get a much better idea of the true strength of this team. The recovery from early malaise was impressive. Their trouncing of the OKC Thunder in the NBA Cup final sans Khris Middleton was a sort of crowning achievement of said turnaround. On many fronts there has been tangible progress—from individual contributions to refinements in the rotation.
A 1-2 week against middling competition like the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets, though, signals that there is work to be done. That is neither surprising nor negative, but merely the reality of a group that has still struggled to field its big three with any regularity and whose starting lineup has warped a few times over 30 games.
The one thing that jumped out to me in the recent losses to the Nets and Bulls was, at that point, Milwaukee’s very solid “clutch” game record. For those reasonably not keeping track at home, the NBA considers a game to be subject to clutch designation when:
…the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime when the score is within five points
One thing I’m unsure about is if, say, a game is at 90-95 with five minutes to go and one team goes up 90-97, does it no longer qualify as “clutch”? I presume so, although the NBA itself isn’t clear on this. Either way, what they’re trying to measure is how well individual players and teams perform when games are on the line. An admirable undertaking and one the Bucks had done relatively well in sitting at 8-5 at the start of last week. Now at 8-7 they’re about league-average in terms of win percentage. What about the stats?
- 2024-2025 Bucks “clutch” advanced stats: 100.0 ORtg (26th), 106.8 DRtg (10th), -6.8 net (21st)
- 2023-2024 Bucks “clutch” advanced stats: 119.8 ORtg (7th), 104.6 DRtg (5th), +15.1 net (5th)
Not great, but arguably a small enough sample early in the season that can be turned around. Let’s take a look at some of the key players this year v. last:
Dame
- Damian Lillard (‘24-’25): 12 clutch game appearances, 2.8 points (.375/.273/1.00) on 2.0 attempts and with 1.0 assists, -1.4 net rating
- Damian Lillard (‘23-’24): 37 appearances, 3.8 points (.412/.295/.949) on 2.3 attempts and 0.7 assists
Giannis
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (‘24-’25): 11 appearances, 3.6 points (.583/.500/.688) on 2.2 attempts, 1.9 rebounds, 0.8 assists, +15.1 net rating
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (‘23-’24): 36 appearances, 2.9 points (.534/.500/.736) on 2.9 attempts, 1.2 rebounds, 0.6 assists
Khris
- Khris Middleton (‘24-’25): 6 appearances, 2.8 points (.357/.250/.857) on 2.3 attempts and 1.0 rebounds, 0.3 assists, -10.7 net rating
- Khris Middleton (‘23-’24): 24 appearances, 1.3 points (.429/.300/.900) on 0.9 attempts, 0.7 rebounds, 0.4 assists
What stands out about those initial splits? First, it should be noted that Lillard and Antetokounmpo were ranked 6th and 21st overall in clutch scoring last season for guys who had more than 10 appearances, respectively, which belied the progress they made to operate as a tandem as the season wore on. This season, if we remove guys with five or fewer clutch games, Giannis ranks at 11th and Dame 28th (Khris is at 29th).
That’s an interesting snapshot. It implies overall strength when it comes to individual scorers (Giannis in particular has leveled up), yet it hasn’t translated into anything like efficiency gains as a whole. Part of that is due to how rarely all three have played together so far. But you can also sense the same shortfalls when watching the Bucks late. On one level it is not clear who, if anyone, has been given primary responsibility as the shot taker. Giannis is the leader here, but all three are within striking distance of one another.
On another level, opponents have gotten wise to countering the my turn, your turn looks Milwaukee churns out. If Damian Lillard is the ball handler you can reasonably expect a screen at the top of the key or wing—if Giannis is the screener you can try and bottle both up by crowding the paint and if Brook Lopez is screening you can keep a hand up to obstruct any pop while bottling Lillard up. Khris Middleton typically looks to manufacture isolation looks at the elbow, but can open himself up to a surprise double if his teammates aren’t calling it out for his attention. Giannis is a load to handle and is probably at his individual offensive best the past few months, but we’re all familiar with the occasions where he gets stripped if he brings the ball low on his post move.
What does this all tell us? That the offense has a way to go and plenty of roles needing ironing out, but, encouragingly, the defense is already borderline good enough to keep the team afloat even when the stars are inefficient. Should Doc Rivers be able to implement a reliable reproducible approach for his stars late they’ll be in good shape. Until then and with injury/illness woes continuing to linger, those late clutch performances are as good as 50/50.
Let’s roundup!
Milwaukee Bucks Links
(That was a lot of text in the intro, so we’ll be brief the rest of the way)
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks miffed they were left off NBA’s Christmas Day slate: ‘I’m pissed’ (Yahoo)
Shot…
MVP Ladder: Victor Wembanyama begins to knock on Top 5 door (NBA.com)
…chaser:
If you’re a “everyone in professional basketball hates Milwaukee and Giannis in particular”, well, you can now read exactly that on the NBA’s own official website! That’s impressive and a little scary!
The Bucks Are Wide Awake (RealGM)
I don’t often go over to the environs of RGM for analysis, but they do have an ostensible group of writers there who cover the league. This piece was written in the afterglow of the Cup final and is along the same lines of positivity at the team’s resurgence. The next step? Stabilizing before the schedule starts to turn a little more road-involved. Good news is that Milwaukee’s remaining strength of schedule is still easier than ~2/3rds of the league.
Luka Doncic’s injury is perfect example of why NBA’s 65-game thresholds need some tweaking (CBS Sports)
Highlighting this not because I have any particular feelings about Doncic, but because things like the new 65 game minimum for awards may actually come to benefit the Bucks. In spite of the recent spate of illnesses that have hit Giannis and Dame, both remain on track to hit at least 65 appearances. Why shouldn’t the league look to reward availability as something important when evaluating the relative merits of players at the highest levels? In fact, I’m shocked the NBPA even agreed to 65 in the first place because it felt anathema to the direction teams were heading in vis-a-vis load management. Will it inevitably result in years where fringe stars get more accolades than they normally would’ve? Sure. But missing a statistically signifiant chunk of the season should matter, too.
Know Your NBA Enemy
Indiana Pacers – Indy Cornrows – Thomas Bryant’s arrival helps Pacers on a few levels
I wasn’t aware of how dire the situation had been for Indiana’s big rotation due to injuries. Jalen Smith departed for Chicago during the offseason and the backups left behind picked up knocks almost immediately. Thomas Bryant won’t be a cure-all, but a few functional veteran minutes is better than throwing deep prospects to the wolves for a team trying to win.
Brooklyn Nets – Nets Daily – Nets trading Dorian Finney-Smith, Shake Milton to Lakers for D’Angelo Russell, Maxwell Lewis, three seconds
I’d say this is good news for the Bucks because it leaves the Nets even more depleted as a roster, but… well, you know. Last week happened. Russell becoming the trade chip par excellence is very funny.
Portland Trail Blazers – Blazer’s Edge – Could Anfernee Simons Actually Be The Answer At Point Guard?
Simons hitting a completely uncontested game-winning layup of Nikola Jokic was satisfying as a Giannis-stan, but the bit I’ve heard about Simons revolves around his inconsistency more than anything else. He’ll probably luck into finding a contract above the NBA’s middle class, but Portland seems so far from actual competitiveness that doubling down wouldn’t make much sense.
The Social Media Section
Reminiscent of many a hostage video. At least Giannis got paid $70 bajillion for this.
Imagine an entire family blessed with the Ibaka genes. It’s real.
Big Bob, Big Trade Machine Candidate (Again)
#MoreThan
NBA Cup celebration pics and we pretend its actually for the Finals if things don’t go according to plan
That’s nice
Yeah, I’d probably switch representation if my team told me to take a hike, too
I’ve been away from the prediction grind for too long to try and catch up to it in good faith at this point. Mea culpa and I thank you for your understanding. We’ll still do our weekly preview here, though! To the games:
- @ Indiana Pacers, Tuesday, Dec. 31st — 2:00 PM CST
- v. Brooklyn Nets, Thursday, Jan. 2nd — 7:00 PM CST
- v. Portland Trail Blazers, Saturday, Jan. 4th — 7:00 PM CST
It sounds like the flu or whatever Giannis and Dame have dealt with is pretty damn nasty and, per our on-the-ground reporting, Dame was still coughing aplenty yesterday. Fingers crossed nobody picks it up this late in the symptomatic phase. In the meantime, I’ll hope for a 2-1 week with road wins crowned by the return of the big three to Milwaukee’s lineup.
Happy Monday!