Depending on how the Pelicans do, the Bucks
It might seem early to talk about this, but since 2018, the Bucks have made only one selection in the first round of the NBA Draft: MarJon Beauchamp in 2022. That won’t be the case soon enough, as the Bucks will be making a selection in the 2024 NBA Draft. But where?
Some quick history: one of their picks since 2018 conveyed in 2020 as a result of the Eric Bledsoe trade way back in 2017. GM Jon Horst traded the rest as incentives for acquiring teams to take on bad contracts (John Henson, Matthew Dellavedova, Tony Snell) that his predecessor Jon Hammond signed, enabling Milwaukee to open up cap space ahead of summer 2019. He then used that room to sign Brook Lopez and George Hill to new contracts.
You might remember that back in 2020, the Bucks traded for a fella named Jrue Holiday, who was previously a member of the Pelicans. In that deal, they sent two first-round picks (with another rerouted to Denver) and two pick swaps to The Big Easy for the point guard that cemented a big three who carried them to a title. The first of those picks won’t convey until 2025 and the other in 2027, but the first of the two swaps will occur this year, with the other in 2026.
If you’re unfamiliar with the concept of first-round pick swaps, it’s basically a way for teams to get around the Stepien rule, which stipulates that teams cannot be without a draft choice in the first round in consecutive years. By trading away a swap, the team sending it out grants the acquiring team the chance to exchange draft places, if they like. Sometimes the acquiring team also has the option to defer the swap for a year—which the Pelicans will reportedly do with a pick the Lakers owe them this summer—if that franchise doesn’t like where the other might end up in the draft order, or the draft doesn’t look particularly appealing (that seems to be New Orleans’ rationale right now). But this isn’t typical, and it’s usually a pretty clear decision: if the other team has a better record, then why move back even one spot?
So the Pelicans will have a decision to make about whether or not they want the Bucks’ first-round pick this year; if they do, they’ll give theirs to the Bucks, who will have a first-round pick on draft night no matter what due to the Stepien rule (there’s no reason they can’t trade said choice afterward, though). Because of how both teams finished the regular season and how the Western Conference Play-In is going, though, that decision isn’t strictly a matter of looking at the standings—which determine post-lottery draft order—for New Orleans.
Let’s start with what already transpired: the Bucks finished the regular season losing eight of their last eleven on their way to a 49-33 record and the East’s three seed. They could have avoided that fate and gotten the two seed with a win over the Magic on Sunday, but they got blown out in the fourth quarter on the road. Instead, they’ll face the Pacers rather than the Sixers, who claimed the East’s seven seed with their victory over the Heat two nights ago.
The Pelicans finished the regular season losing five of their last nine games (though they did have a four-game win streak within that) on their way to a 49-33 record and the top spot in the West Play-In. They could have avoided that fate and taken the West’s six seed with a win over the Lakers on Sunday, but they got blown out at home. That meant they had to play those same Lakers on Tuesday for the chance to claim the West’s seven seed, but their spirited comeback from eighteen down fell just short. Now, New Orleans will host Sacramento on Friday for the chance to be the eight seed, and will have to do so without Zion Williamson.
The result of that particular game matters a lot to the Bucks. If the Kings win, the Pelicans aren’t just not in the NBA Playoffs, they’re at the bottom of the draft lottery. Their record is better than the teams whose seasons already ended during the Play-In—the Hawks (who lost to the Bulls on Wednesday) and Warriors (who the Kings smoked on Tuesday)—and it’s better than both of the East’s remaining teams—the Bulls and Heat—who will also compete for an eight seed tonight. So a loss will position them as the team with the fewest lottery combinations for a top-four selection (just 3.4%) and a near-guarantee (a 96.6% chance) to draft fourteenth overall.
Since the Lakers made the playoffs with their victory on Tuesday, they are guaranteed a pick no better than sixteenth or worse than twentieth: they tied in the standings with the Pacers and Sixers, so the NBA will conduct a random tiebreaker to determine the order from sixteen through eighteen, or eighteen through twenty if the Bulls and Kings were both to win tonight. So New Orleans’ decision is whether or not to move into that sixteen to twenty range from wherever they end up. But where will that be?
If the Pelicans win tonight, they’ll make the playoffs with an identical record to both the Bucks and the sixth-seeded Suns, meaning there will be another tiebreaker for selections 21–23. So New Orleans could potentially move up two spots to 21st if Milwaukee wins it and New Orleans exercises its right to swap. That pick’s range of outcomes depending on tonight’s outcome works out to the fourteenth or 21–23rd selections.
Should the Kings win, it wouldn’t make much sense for the Pelicans to move back from fourteen, so the swap with LA to the 2025 draft makes even more sense. If the Pelicans pull it out tonight, they’re guaranteed to draft later than the Lakers in June, but they still plan to defer. Their next choice is what to do regarding the Bucks’ pick, which they cannot defer for a year.
So where will the Bucks pick? In practice, Milwaukee will select at either 22 or 23, but they won’t get a chance at 21. Here’s how: if the Pelicans defeat the Kings later, their swap question comes down to who wins the tiebreaker for 21. If the Bucks get 21, the Pelicans could move there from 22 or 23. If the Suns get 21, the Pelicans could move up from 23 or stay at 22, depending. Another way of putting it: if the Pelicans win tonight, the Bucks will draft 22nd or 23rd should the Pelicans get the 21st pick in that tiebreaker. If the Pelicans lose, the tiebreaker is only between the Bucks and Suns, so the Bucks will draft either 22nd or 23rd because the Kings would move out of the lottery, bumping everyone back a spot. Make sense?
Again, if New Orleans loses tonight, they’re in the lottery and there’s no sense in moving back seven to nine spots to Milwaukee’s pick. But if they defeat Sacramento and end up at 22 or 23 in the tiebreaker, their decision becomes whether to move up to Milwaukee’s pick or LA’s pick. Since that Lakers pick could end up between sixteen and eighteen, they could move up as many as seven spots (which would mean they’re not swapping with the Bucks). This has to be maddening if you’re a Pelicans fan, not knowing if you’ll pick at fourteen, sixteen, seventeen, eighteen, 21, 22, or 23 even if you make the playoffs. But if reports are to be believed, they won’t swap with the Lakers and hope the choice is clearer next year than opting for sixteen over 23, should things work out that way.
Whatever outcome you’d prefer tonight as a Bucks fan, this is interesting to look back on. When trading all those selections and swaps to New Orleans, the thought was that Milwaukee should have the better regular season record in all those years. With health and some nice drafting, the Pelicans are pretty well-positioned in the coming years to contend as long as Zion Williamson is on the floor.
The Bucks didn’t meet regular season expectations in what ended up a turbulent year, but their draft choice improved a bit as a result. Unfortunately, tying with two other teams might set them back as far as two spots, around where they would have ended up with even just one more win. Still, the difference between two picks in the early twenties is marginal, and by many accounts, this year’s draft class is a weaker one. Plus, as long as both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are playing, they project to stay in the mix atop the East for the next year or two, and maybe this isn’t a problem in 2026. By then, the Pelicans could look a lot different too.
From there, who knows? The onus is on the Bucks to remain competitive between now and 2030, because beyond these picks and swaps going to Louisiana (one could end up with New York, more on that below) through 2027, another three will go to Oregon the following three drafts thanks to the Lillard trade. Portland can swap in 2028 and 2030, so the goal is to be outperforming them at that time (Giannis’ current contract goes until 2027 with a 2028 player option).
This is why the idea of rebuilding should the Bucks come up short in the next year or two is so problematic: they don’t own any of their picks. You don’t want to tank in any season only to have to send your high lottery pick to Portland or New Orleans. Next season, their pick would actually end up with one of their chief Eastern rivals in New York if they tanked big time and ended up between one and five. Horst built this team to contend year in and year out by trading these picks (for star talent, I might add) just as he did by locking up Giannis.
22 is certainly a good number in Bucks history, so Kings, I suppose.