Numerous NBA front offices began operating under the belief in recent days that a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade before the league’s February 5 trade deadline at 3 PM ET had become somewhat more possible. The speculation intensified despite Antetokounmpo insisting on January 8 that he would never ask for a trade from the Milwaukee Bucks.
But Antetokounmpo suddenly sustained another worrisome calf injury in Friday’s loss by the Bucks against the Denver Nuggets. Antetokounmpo said he expects to be sidelined by this latest setback with his right calf for at least four to six weeks, well beyond the February 5 trade deadline.
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst went on Get Up on Friday morning and proclaimed that Antetokounmpo is the trade deadline. The Bucks’ incessant losing is the foremost culprit for the rising trade speculation.
Before Friday’s injury, tensions in Milwaukee had spiked to a tone more concerning than any previous tipping point in Antetokounmpo’s 13-season tenure with the Bucks. The Bucks had slumped to 18-25 even before Antetokounmpo’s latest calf misfortune, sitting 11th in the Eastern Conference.
Antetokounmpo had only sparked further doubt about his future with the franchise by repeatedly airing his increasing frustration during recent postgame media availabilities. Multiple officials from rival teams indicated that the league’s top curiosity as the trade buzzer nears had most definitely become Antetokounmpo’s status.
The precise impact of a long-term Antetokounmpo absence was still being assessed leaguewide as of Saturday. Valid questions have emerged about whether a trade must wait until the offseason or if interest in Antetokounmpo remains strong enough that even a new injury won’t dissuade potential suitors.
“This is shaping up to be a draft-day kind of thing,” said one league source particularly well-versed in Bucks matters.
Another source stated simply: “It’s happening.”
The most immediate impact of Antetokounmpo’s injury absence is that continuing to pursue win-now moves over the next 12 days until the deadline would appear to be futile for the Bucks. Without Antetokounmpo in the lineup, the Bucks are 3-11 this season.
League sources say that the Bucks were already struggling to generate difference-making trade discussions by making the likes of Kyle Kuzma and Bobby Portis Jr. available. Michael Porter Jr., Zach LaVine, De’Andre Hunter, Jerami Grant and Miles Bridges have all been mentioned as potential targets.
The Bucks’ lack of available draft capital to sweeten trade offers has clearly complicated their search to improve the roster around Antetokounmpo. Sources describe Milwaukee’s grudging realization over the course of this season that pathways to providing Antetokounmpo with the championship contention he has cleared prioritized just aren’t there.
Waiting until after the NBA’s lottery drawing in May to truly launch into the process of parting with their franchise player via trade would at least enable the Bucks to know exactly what potential trade partners can offer in terms of 2026 draft capital. If the Atlanta Hawks land a top pick in the June draft, its ability to make a compelling trade offer for Antetokounmpo rises exponentially.
Teams such as the Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers would have access to more tradeable future first-round picks in the offseason than those teams can put on the table between now and the February 5 trade deadline. After this season, Antetokounmpo has only one more guaranteed season on his contract in addition to a $62.8 million player option for 2027-28.
The Portland Trail Blazers are definitely a team to track here when it comes to eventual Antetokounmpo outcomes. Portland still controls Milwaukee’s draft capital in 2028, 2029 and 2030 thanks to the teams’ Jrue Holiday-for-Damian Lillard swap.