Despite a tough schedule, Milwaukee has a good shot at home-court advantage in the first round.
Entering play today, the Bucks stand at 33-25, the 9th best record in the NBA and in possession of the East’s fourth seed. Though they’re tied with Indiana, Milwaukee currently owns the tiebreaker over their Central Division rivals thanks to two victories over them in both of their matchups thus far. They draw the Pacers again on March 11th and 15th in what may determine who ends up with the lowest spot among teams to secure homecourt advantage in the first round.
Nationally, fans surveyed think that the Bucks will hold onto the four seed despite 24 games remaining with the seventh-toughest strength of schedule, which is also the hardest among all Eastern teams by quite a bit. In that time, they’ll draw the Lakers twice, the Thunder at home, Nuggets on the road, then the Cavs and Knicks at home (neither of whom the Bucks have beaten yet this season), plus the aforementioned Pacers. Very broadly, it seems like NBA observers have faith in the Dame-Giannis pairing alongside deadline moves that improved the Bucks’ athleticism to carry them to a top-four seed:
Meanwhile, fans think these will be the teams to earn the fifth through eighth spots, after the play-in is all said and done:
Orlando has a lot of work to do to get into a top six seed, as does Miami. Both teams have fallen below .500 as Detroit has risen into the sixth spot as one of the league’s hottest teams since the new year. They’re tied with the Bucks and Pacers in the wins column, but have two more losses, and don’t have the tiebreaker over either (the Pistons are already 1-3 vs. the Pacers). The Pistons have a home-and-home against the Bucks to close out the regular season—an end-of-year that looked like a cakewalk entering the year, but isn’t anymore.
With the Knicks 5.5 games up on the Bucks right now, it’s shaping up to be a three-team race for that fourth seed. As of now, the Bucks have the upper hand, and one more win against both the Pacers and Pistons would grant them tiebreakers that could prove necessary in the seeding battle. This would be the first time since 2017 where four Central Division teams qualify for the playoffs outright, and if Chicago manages to sneak in via the play-in, the second time where all five teams make it (the other was in 2006).
Check out FanDuel Sportsbook for more NBA odds.