The Wizards forward has been discussed more recently than Jimmy Butler
With the two major trades taking one rumored Bucks target off the board, Milwaukee may be pivoting to other names as some believe they are interested in some more star power. Jimmy Butler is still on the Heat’s roster and apparently told the Warriors he wouldn’t extend there, so they’ve tabled that idea. He still prefers to be traded to the Suns, and some around the league still think the Bucks could get involved as a facilitator in what would have to be a multi-team deal if they don’t actually go for Butler himself.
But as relayed by Jake Fischer of The Stein Line earlier today, apparently Milwaukee is talking about a different forward:
Many league observers [suggest] that a Butler deal, at this juncture, is as likely to involve the Warriors or the Milwaukee Bucks as the Suns finally getting him. Yet there has been little fresh chatter on Milwaukee’s pursuit of Butler in recent days. Sources with knowledge of the situation have relayed that the Bucks have more recently had conversations about pursuing Washington’s Kyle Kuzma.
That’s certainly a new one. There hasn’t been much chatter around the Wizards’ few productive players in what’s becoming a historically bad year for the franchise, currently sitting at the bottom of the league standings with an absolutely abysmal 7-41. Kuzma’s in his fourth year there, coming over in the 2022 offseason in the five-team deal that sent Russell Westbrook to the Lakers. He took over for Bradley Beal as the team’s leading scorer last season, but he’s been supplanted by Jordan Poole since. His current 15.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 27.6 MPG are his lowest figures since his final campaign in LA.
That being said, he was a key contributor off the bench of the Lakers’ 2020 championship squad, and he has a reputation as at least a neutral defender. While he’s remained pretty healthy throughout his career, he’s dealt with injuries to both his ribs and calf this season, with the first one keeping him out a month. The calf strain came soon after his return around New Year’s, but it didn’t force him to miss a game. He’ll turn 30 this summer, so he’s theoretically in his physical prime for at least another couple years.
But let’s get to the nitty-gritty: how could the Bucks acquire him if they are indeed interested? Kuz is in just the second year of a four-year, $90m extension he signed with the Wiz back in the summer of 2023. He makes $23.5m this year, but it’s a descending salary structure, and he’ll drop down to $21.5m next season before $19.4m in his walk year. He does have $3m in unlikely benefits each season that do count toward the second apron, which the Bucks are currently over.
Because of that, Milwaukee would be hard-capped at that $188.9m apron if they aggregate salaries in order to acquire Kuzma. The problem is, at $6.5m above the apron, trading salaries would have to cut that much from their budget. Plus, Bobby Portis at $12.5m and Pat Connaughton at $9.5m barely clears $22m, and they also cannot acquire a penny more in salary than they’re taking back. That also means a one-for-one trade of Brook Lopez, who makes $23m on the dot, isn’t possible.
Obviously, the piece that makes the most sense in salary-matching is Khris Middleton at $31.7m. However, his salary is a mere $644k above the maximum incoming salary Washington could take for Kuzma, so they would need to trade away an additional player. If that guy goes to a third team instead of Milwaukee, they’d reduce their team salary by about $8.2m going from Middleton for Kuzma. They also would remain free of a hard cap at the second apron, which is important because Kuzma’s unlikely benefits would put them about $978k beneath it. Just like the unlikely benefits in Middleton’s contract, they won’t pay them if he doesn’t achieve them, but they still apply if they’re facing a hard cap.
That would occur if the Bucks had to aggregate, which would be very challenging to accomplish without Lopez. A one-for-one Middleton-Kuzma exchange, even if they were to add someone like MarJon Beauchamp into the outgoing package, wouldn’t require aggregation since Kuzma’s salary slides right into where Middleton’s was. No aggregation happens if the Bucks acquired a second player from the Wizards in a two-for-two or one-for-two either, so long as they are making under $4m if it’s the former or $9m if it’s the latter.
This could impact Milwaukee’s flexibility this summer since they would be replacing Middleton’s player option—it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that he opts out with continued health and a strong postseason—with Kuzma’s guaranteed salary. But they would still be well beneath the first apron and thus have access to the full mid-level exception. If Portis opts out of his final season and Connaughton opts in, they would have just $156.8m committed to nine players for 2025–26; not enough to have cap space, but plenty of room to add via trade and the non-taxpayer MLE.
Replacing Kuzma with Middleton is probably a step down. Though yes, he’s four years younger and less of an injury risk, Kuzma’s efficiency has slid considerably this season to a nasty 48.8% true shooting with a 47.0% effective field goal percentage. He’s a career 33.5% shooter from deep and has never shot better than 36.6% in a season—way back in his rookie year—and is down to a Giannis-like 28.6% in this campaign. Speaking of Giannis-like, he’s shooting a ghastly 58.9% at the line this year, far beneath his 72.4% career average.
Though he became a more willing passer since arriving in DC, he’s back closer to his Laker levels in terms of raw assist numbers. At 6’9” and 220, he’s more of a four in traditional lineups, so slotting him in on the wing next to Giannis would give them a lot of size. He’s long been a good rebounder and gets to the line at about the same clip as Middleton has in recent years. He proved in LA that he’s a decent tertiary piece, which is probably his best role since higher usage in recent years hasn’t improved his efficiency. On the other end, he’s quicker than Middleton (most players are at this point), but even with his size, he doesn’t have the foot speed to really stop dynamic wings.
I don’t think this would be a strong enough upgrade on Middleton, who was excellent this past week in the three games he wasn’t scoreless. Yes there’s the age and athleticism difference and a team-friendly contract, but that will probably lose trade value as the years go by, especially if he keeps declining. Plus, I still have faith that Middleton is far more likely to have a big playoff showing on two surgically repaired ankles—he did last season on one, then two injured ankles—than Kuzma, who has never been anything approaching a star.
Using the Bucks’ 2031 first-round pick on him feels like a massive overpay if it doesn’t have significant protections on it. I’m talking lottery protected at a minimum, ideally top 18, and rolling over into multiple second-round picks if it doesn’t convey. In his best seasons, Kuzma was probably never worth multiple firsts, and in his current form, it’s debatable if he’s even worth one. If these discussions did indeed happen, I hope they didn’t get too far.