As spring training gets closer, everyone is still in the conversation for divisional frontrunner
Last season, the Brewers won the NL Central by 10 games. It was a bit unexpected since the division was expected to be a close one. Not only that, but very few projections had the Brewers winning the division following the departure of Craig Counsell and trade of Corbin Burnes. However, the Brewers defied those expectations and won the division.
As we get ever so close to the 2025 season, the early looks at the season are not that much different than 2024. While the Brewers didn’t have a managerial change, they did lose two major players (Willy Adames to free agency, Devin Williams to trade). However, early expectations are for another close divisional race.
While most of the usual MLB projections haven’t been released yet, there’s one place we can look at for early projections: sports books. Though they aren’t the best source for projected stats, they can give us an early look at where opinions currently sit. Here’s what one book puts the current win totals at (for informational purposes only):
- Cubs: 85.5
- Brewers: 82.5
- Reds: 78.5
- Pirates: 76.5
- Cardinals: 75.5
While it’s not a surprise to see the Cubs at the top, the overall feeling here is a bit off. The Cubs gaining two to three games makes sense, as they have arguably made the biggest offseason acquisition within the division so far (trading for Kyle Tucker from the Astros). However, are the Brewers really in a position to play 10 to 11 games worse than 2024? That’s a big drop.
It’s understandable why early odds would be down on the Brewers. They lost two of their biggest players this offseason in Adames and Williams. The Brewers haven’t actively looked to replace either and are sticking internally or with smaller transactions. Whether it is fair or not, big names are going to drive offseason discussions. Odds are also driven that way. Though internal experts may place initial odds, public perception is going to move them up or down a bit.
Though full standings are not out yet, the ZiPS projections are more positive for the Brewers. While the Cubs are mentioned as the NL Central favorite by a slight margin, ZiPS still sees the Brewers as an 86-to-90-win team. The Reds and Pirates are seen as .500 teams, with the Reds having more upside than the Pirates. Cardinals’ projections aren’t out yet, but they haven’t made any major moves this offseason.
If the division race is going to be a close one again, small changes up or down could make a big difference. Here are some factors that could really influence the Brewers’ success in 2025.
The Brewers are betting on the return of Brandon Woodruff.
One of the Brewers biggest additions in 2025 could be from a player returning from injury. After missing the 2024 season following shoulder surgery, Woodruff is working to be ready to pitch in 2025. The most recent reports are encouraging with him pitching two bullpen sessions a week, but it’s still uncertain if he’ll be available for Opening Day.
Early projections on Woodruff are overall positive. While they aren’t projecting a return to his 2021 or 2023 form (where he had a 2.56 and 2.28 ERA, respectively), they are seeing a positive season for him. FanGraphs projections put him between a 3.37 and 3.79 ERA, good for an fWAR between 2.1 and 3.2.
However, there’s still a lot of unknowns with Woodruff. It’s hard to predict much for him until he’s fully back on a mound and pitching in games. The Brewers are making a significant bet that Woodruff will get back to where he was. It will be a big boost if he can get back to that level, but also a big hit if he can’t get there.
Youth is a major source of volatility in the upcoming season.
The Brewers are still a relatively young team. Last season, they had one of the youngest rosters. Baseball Reference lists the average age of their batters at 26.4 years, third lowest in all of MLB. Going into next season, they currently have just three batters that will be 30 or older: Christian Yelich (33 in 2025), Rhys Hoskins (32), and Eric Haase (32). The pitching staff will be similar, though they are slightly older overall (they were around the league average roster age of 29.0 last season, per B-Ref). Only 11 players on the roster are at or above three years of service time.
Several players will be entering their second full (or mostly full) season in the majors in 2025: Jackson Chourio, DL Hall, Sal Frelick, Jared Koenig, Joey Ortiz, Bryan Hudson, Tobias Myers. Overall sample size for them is still small, so while there’s a frame of reference, it’s not as established. The Brewers were very dependent on their young players during the 2024 season. While they can adjust to one or two of them having down years, more of them regressing would be a blow to the team’s chances to win the division.
A move to improve the infield could give them a bigger margin for error.
When putting together the early look at the batting order on Tuesday, one part of the lineup stood out more than the rest: the empty space at third base. Right now, the Brewers have a gaping hole at the position, and their current plan seems to be internal options. Caleb Durbin leads the depth chart, with Oliver Dunn, Andruw Monasterio, and Brock Wilken also noted on the ZiPS projections. There’s no name there right now that stands above the rest. It will be a job up for grabs and might even be rotated throughout the season.
First base isn’t much better, though there’s at least an established name at the position. For better or worse, Rhys Hoskins provided some value at first last season. He hit 26 home runs and drove in 82 runs, despite providing near replacement-level value (0.1 fWAR last season). Some of the early projections do see him having a small bounce-back, but none of the projections on his FanGraphs page put him over 1.0 fWAR.
This can be the area where the Brewers strike. As mentioned in Paul’s article from earlier in the week, the Brewers have had a recent tendency to bring in batters from free agency on one-year deals. These tend to be players who were looking for a better deal but couldn’t find one, so they took a one-year deal in hopes of building their value. After the deal is up, they go back into free agency and try to get something better. As spring training gets closer and the remaining players on the market run out of time, the Brewers could strike and bring in a player on one of these contracts.
Overall, the division is still very winnable for the Brewers. It’s still a tough spot to be in, but there’s time to make improvements. They’re still the defending champion for a good reason, and they can back it up. Another move or two would improve their chances in 2025.