Why Vaughn could be the Brewers’ first baseman of the future
Just one day after a greatly publicized trade request, the Milwaukee Brewers parted ways with RHP Aaron Civale.
Civale was the Brewers’ third-highest-paid player, at $8 million/year, and a valuable depth option in the rotation. He had a 3.53 ERA in fourteen starts with Milwaukee last year, but had only started five games this year due to injury. Civale isn’t ever going to be an ace, but he’s a good pitcher.
Milwaukee traded him for White Sox first baseman Andrew Vaughn, a former top prospect who currently has a 49 OPS+. I understand why some may feel that we got the short end of the stick. This is, by definition, a buy-low.
Civale also publicly requested a trade, which means the front office lost a lot of leverage in negotiations with other teams. For that reason, I’m not going to focus on whether we “won” the trade. This article is about Vaughn and why I think it’s highly possible that the Brewers just got a future contributor.
First of all, Vaughn’s track record isn’t limited to his (to be fair, abysmal) 2025 season, which has seen him demoted to Triple-A by the 23-46 White Sox. Vaughn has never had a “great” or even “very good” season. He has, however, been consistently average since reaching the majors back in 2021. His OPS+ has bounced between 91 and 111 every season of his career save for this one. He’s hit at least 15 home runs every season of his career except for this one.
Vaughn hadn’t ever been 49 OPS+ bad before this year, and probably won’t be that bad going forward. This is supported by the fact that Vaughn has objectively been really unlucky this season. His expected batting average is .249, with an expected slugging percentage of .461. On May 1, a couple of weeks before being sent down to Triple-A, Rotowire ranked him as the second-most unlucky hitter in all of baseball.
Home runs aren’t everything, but Vaughn’s worst home run total in his career has been 15. That’s more home runs than Ernesto Martinez Jr. has ever hit in a season in the minors.
Jake Bauers has an OPS+ of 92 as a Brewer. Vaughn’s career OPS+, even after an abysmal season, is 97. Willy Adames’ OPS+ as a Ray was 102.
Another piece of the puzzle with Vaughn lies with his former organization, the White Sox. Chicago has failed to develop pretty much every top prospect they’ve had in recent years, at least to their full potential. Just ask Eloy Jiménez, Yoán Moncada, Luis Robert Jr., or Michael Kopech.
One could argue that the White Sox have been bad at identifying talent, and that the problem lies not with development but drafting/signing the wrong players. Then again, the Sox have traded for Dylan Cease, Kopech, and Lucas Giolito. As Brewers fans know, they picked Shane Smith in the Rule 5 draft.
So, then, maybe the issue lies in Chicago’s ability to identify hitters? But then again, Chicago also kept Tim Anderson around until he broke out. Robert should get the White Sox a decent return despite a couple of subpar years. Jose Abreu won MVP, although he defected from Cuba over 10 years ago. Nobody’s arguing that Moncada, Robert, or Jiménez aren’t talented.
I don’t think it’s a question of identifying talent, but rather developing it. Vaughn himself has shown flashes at the big league level. At the same time, his development was undoubtedly rushed. He hit .252 with five home runs in A-ball, then went straight to the majors.
Vaughn was a 21-year-old college junior when drafted. The White Sox looked at that profile and (incorrectly) assumed he’d be ready for the bigs instead of looking at his stats. On top of that, Chicago put Vaughn — a slow, defensively mediocre first baseman — in the outfield to start his career. That’s not how you develop a No. 3 overall pick, even one who was seen as “high floor” at the time.
When you look at Vaughn as someone whose development was botched, the trade starts to make more sense. Vaughn is a former Golden Spikes Award winner as the best player in college baseball. He was a third overall pick. He has talent, talent that — per his Baseball Savant page — is still translating to the big leagues. Vaughn is around the 80th percentile in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and exit velocity this year. That’s something to work with.
Luckily for Vaughn, the Brewers don’t need him this year. Milwaukee already has Rhys Hoskins, sitting at a 118 OPS+ with 10 home runs on the season. His backup is the eternally clutch Bauers, whose 114 OPS+ isn’t too shabby either. The Crew also has Bobby Dalbec and Anthony Seigler, who have both been playing well in the minors and could man first in a pinch. I know there’s also a sizeable contingent of Brewers fans that want to see Martinez, slashing .252/.390/.813 with five home runs in Triple-A this year, get his shot at first. Vaughn will have the time he needs to work with the Brewers development team and figure out what needs to be figured out.
Milwaukee also has a track record of bringing in major leaguers and getting the best out of them at the plate. Adames and Christian Yelich come to mind. William Contreras broke out in his last season with Atlanta, but has posted his two best seasons, in terms of WAR, as a Brewer. It was a while ago at this point, but the Brewers turned Eric Thames into a 30-homer guy. Same with Jesus Aguilar. Vaughn is, by definition, a bust. That doesn’t mean that he is incapable of contributing as a big leaguer.
The final thing to mention with Vaughn is the mental side to his game. Rumors have flown around that Vaughn has a work ethic problem. I grew up in Santa Rosa, California, the same city where Vaughn grew up. Vaughn went to Maria Carrillo High School, which is where my middle school travel baseball team also practiced. I got to see him take batting practice a few times because our coach would have us go field for the older kids.
Vaughn was already committed to play at Cal, and watching him, it was obvious he’d be a high draft pick someday. I was lucky enough to play with other future major league draft picks, but Vaughn was freakishly talented — the most well-rounded, natural hitter I’ve ever seen at the youth level. I can’t speak to his work ethic. However, if what Tyler Osik says is true, it makes sense to me. Vaughn, from the little I saw, was certainly talented enough to sleepwalk into .250 and 15 home runs.
That makes his White Sox career a letdown, yes. The way I see it, it also bodes well for his prospects as a Brewer. If the problem with Vaughn is that he doesn’t work hard enough, wouldn’t that mean he’s basically at his floor right now? Furthermore, what better way to light a fire under him than trading him to Milwaukee for an expiring contract?
Vaughn will be in Triple-A for an organization that didn’t draft him, stuck behind at least two different productive first basemen. He now plays for a team that has a positive developmental track record and higher expectations than the 2024-25 White Sox. The Brewers could very well be getting a pissed-off, motivated Vaughn with the support to actually succeed.
Vaughn is a bust, yes, but that colors people’s opinions of how bad he actually is. If the Brewers can get even a 15% improvement out of Vaughn, that’s a player who’s worth starting. A 15% improvement on his career OPS+ would be somewhere around the numbers that Hoskins (118) and Bauers (114) — both free agents after the year — are putting up this year. That’s a serviceable first baseman.
Small-market organizations have to take risks to stay competitive, and this is a risk that, to me, makes sense. Vaughn suffered under a rushed developmental process and has still managed to be an average hitter throughout his career. His talent level and expected stats suggest he’s capable of more. The Brewers have a track record of identifying major-league talent with room for improvement. I wouldn’t be surprised if Milwaukee can get the best out of Vaughn.