Milwaukee’s failure to address holes during the offseason has cost them thus far
Roughly two months into the season, the Brewers are sitting right around .500 (14-15). Milwaukee is now in third place in the division after a down week, three games back of the first-place Cubs and three games from the bottom of the division.
Milwaukee has gotten far more than what was expected from Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Chad Patrick, Nick Mears, and a few other contributors. Other pitchers (Logan Henderson, Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana) have helped the Brewers keep their head above water with eight starting pitchers on the IL.
Honestly, the Brewers’ record seems like a pretty accurate reflection of how the season has gone so far. Somehow, it feels like with all that’s gone right for Milwaukee this season, just as much has gone wrong. First, it was all of the injuries to the starting rotation. Apart from a couple of rough Elvin Rodriguez and Connor Thomas appearances, Milwaukee’s patchwork pitching staff has held up quite nicely.
Then, it was the third base situation. Pat Murphy’s planned third base platoon of Vinny Capra and Oliver Dunn didn’t exactly work out as he had envisioned. Dunn slashed .167/.205/.222 in 36 at-bats before demoted — he’s hitting .138 in Triple A right now. He was somehow significantly better than Capra (.073/.136/.282), who hasn’t had a hit since April 2 and has only gotten on base twice since then. Capra also isn’t a particularly good fielder.
That obviously wasn’t a tenable situation, so the Brewers called up prospect Caleb Durbin — acquired from the Yankees as part of the return for Devin Williams. Durbin has played pretty well (.250 BA, three extra-base hits) since his debut in four less at-bats than Dunn had this season. He’s been an improvement, no doubt about it.
At the same time, though, Durbin isn’t an impressive prospect. He stands 5’7” and played Division III baseball, which speaks to his perceived lack of top-end physical tools — Durbin’s been referred to as an “improbable big leaguer” more than once, even after standout seasons in the minors. He’s only hit double-digit home runs once as a pro and has never hit more than 10 in a season.
The problem now is the bullpen. Milwaukee has blown three saves as a team already this year. Two of their last three losses have been the result of a late-inning bullpen meltdown. Joel Payamps has been completely terrible (11.70 ERA) — and that’s with a few recent scoreless outings. Maybe it’s because he’s now tipping his pitches, but he hasn’t been good since sometime around the All-Star break last year. Elvis Peguero, who was supposed to contribute, is down in Triple-A after a rough start. Closer Trevor Megill has a 4.91 ERA so far and just blew another save against the Cardinals, which is as grave of a sin as any Brewers pitcher could commit.
The frustrating thing about Milwaukee’s inconsistency so far this season is that a lot of what was “supposed to” go right … has. Jackson Chourio, despite a couple cold streaks and a lack of walks, looks like a budding superstar. The Brewers are getting offensive production out of their infield courtesy of Brice Turang, Rhys Hoskins, and (for the last week or so) Durbin. Milwaukee has three starting pitchers (Quintana, Patrick, and Freddy Peralta) with an ERA currently under 2.50. William Contreras is having a bit of a down season, and Joey Ortiz a major one, but I would argue pretty much everyone else is performing as expected or better.
If you’d told me all of this at the start of the season, I would have guessed we’d be closer to the Cubs than the Pirates right now. Maybe it’s just me, but I feel like we should be better than .500 right now. This team has most of the pieces it would need to make a run deep into October but has been held back by a glaring lack of depth at the corners and in the bullpen. Both of those holes were apparent this offseason, yet the Brewers front office neglected to bring in any real help.
Imagine if the Brewers had signed Ha-Seong Kim and had him coming back from injury in a month instead of the Durbin/Dunn/Capra trio. Jose Iglesias, who I wrote about as a possible infield solution this offseason (with Ortiz moving back to third), is hitting .281 for the Padres right now. San Diego is paying him $3 million this season.
Franchise cornerstone Christian Yelich is 33 — around the time many hitters begin to decline. Milwaukee has multiple highly ranked prospects on the way, both in the infield and on the mound, and will have a number of their young guys going through arbitration in the coming offseasons. If owner Mark Attanasio was intent on maximizing the Brewers’ window, now would be the time to make a move.
Remember Attanasio’s comments this summer questioning whether his goal was to win a World Series? This is what a “summer of entertainment and passion” looks like.
Dunn, Capra, Peguero, Payamps, and Megill have combined for -1.5 WAR this season. Imagine if the Brewers had gone out and gotten one more reliever, or another corner infielder who could provide positive wins over replacement? If those five players had instead contributed a measly 0.2 WAR each, the Brewers would be (theoretically) half a game out of first place right now.
I understand the challenges of running a small market ball club, and I recognize that Attanasio is far from the worst owner in baseball. I get why Attanasio wouldn’t want to go all-in on the next couple seasons — rebuilds suck. Attanasio has invested in new facilities, one of baseball’s best analytics departments, and top-tier talent (Yelich, Chourio). There’s still a lot of baseball left to this season, and all of the players I’ve mentioned as underperforming could very well turn it around.
The Priester trade was questioned by many initially, but he’s helped the Brewers win games. Maybe Durbin hits .270 with great defense. Maybe Capra and Dunn rediscover their spring training selves. Maybe Mears, Craig Yoho, and Jared Koenig can hold down the bullpen until Megill, Peguero, and Payamps figure it out.
It just hurts as a Brewers fan to see a team with so much talent and a couple obvious holes that could be fairly easy remedied. This team could already be a couple wins better this season with just a little bit more depth.
Attanasio’s reluctance to spend might not end up hurting the Brewers in the long run, but it has so far this season.