The Brewers are heading to St. Louis for their first series against the Cardinals this season.
Through the first three weeks of the season, all of the teams in the NL Central have been competitive. There’s only a three-game gap between first and fifth place, which is tied for the smallest gap in the majors (the AL East also has a three-game gap). The first and fifth place teams will face off this weekend in St. Louis, as the Brewers travel to face the Cardinals. It wouldn’t take much for the Cardinals to close that gap this weekend, so the Brewers have to be careful as they enter the weekend series.
The major difference between the Brewers and Cardinals this season has been their offenses. The Brewers offense has been hot and are currently among the leaders in all of MLB. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been in the bottom third. They are 14th in the NL in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Their wRC+ of 85 is 13th in the NL.
Youth dominates the Cardinals lineup now. Nine of the Cardinals’ active thirteen position players are 27 or younger. Masyn Winn has been one of the Cardinals’ best players on offense this season. The 22-year old shortstop is batting .347/.404/.469 in 17 games this season, good for a 141 wRC+. The catchers have also been strong for the Cardinals, with both 32-year old Willson Contreras (161 wRC+) and 24-year old Ivan Herrera (119 wRC+) playing well. Meanwhile, Paul Goldschmidt has been struggling this season. He has a .182/.289/.227 batting line with a 54 wRC+. The two Nolans (Gorman and Arenado) have been batting third or fourth, but Gorman is starting slow with a 76 wRC+. Arenado has been about average at 102 wRC+.
While the batting lineup is on the young side, the pitching staff has more experience in it. The average age of the position players is 27.5 years old, while the pitching staff is at 31.8 years old. Between the two teams, the stats are very close. The ERA (Brewers 3.81, Cardinals 3.85) and FIP (Brewers 4.14, Cardinals 4.18) are nearly identical. So are the strikeout rate (Brewers 8.17 K/9, Cardinals 8.19) and walk rates (Brewers 2.68 BB/9, Cardinals 2.87).
The Brewers will face three of the most experienced starters, but will miss Lance Lynn this time around. Meanwhile, in the bullpen, Ryan Helsley has been handing the closer role, recording seven saves in ten games so far. JoJo Romero (1.86 ERA in 9 games), Andrew Kittredge (1.29 ERA in 8 games), and Matthew Liberatore (2.89 ERA in 7 games) are also among the Cardinals’ most reliable relievers.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Friday, April 19 @ 7:15 p.m.: Freddy Peralta vs. Kyle Gibson
Freddy Peralta gets extra rest after the Brewers pushed him back from game three of the Padres series, lining him up to start game one of this series. His last start was last Friday against the Orioles, where he held the Orioles to just one run in six innings and struck out 11. So far this season, Peralta has a 2.55 ERA, 2.41 ERA, and 26 strikeouts compared to just 2 walks.
Kyle Gibson has struggled through his first three starts this season, with his most start on Saturday against the Diamondbacks. He allowed four runs in six innings in that start. Overall this season, he has a 6.16 ERA and 6.41 FIP, with an 11:6 K/BB ratio. He’s been susceptible to allowing home runs, allowing five in 19 innings so far.
Saturday, April 20 @ 1:15 p.m.: DL Hall vs. Miles Mikolas
It’s been a rough start to the season for DL Hall. After just three starts, he has a 7.11 ERA and 7.38 FIP. Much of that came from his last start in Baltimore. In just 3 1⁄3 innings, he allowed five runs on three home runs.
Miles Mikolas is in his seventh season with the Cardinals, but has had a rough start to the season. In four starts so far, he has a 5.82 ERA and 3.98 FIP, along wiht a 15:7 K/BB ratio. His last start was on Sunday against the Diamondbacks, where he allowed five runs in 4 2⁄3 innings.
Sunday, April 21 @ 1:15 p.m.: Colin Rea vs. Sonny Gray
Colin Rea has picked up from where he left off last season and has quietly been solid for the Brewers. Through three starts, he has a 2.70 ERA and 4.16 ERA. He did run into some trouble in his last start, allowing three runs in 5 2⁄3 innings against the Orioles. He also has 11 strikeouts compared to just 3 walks this season.
Sonny Gray is in his first season with the Cardinals, signing with St. Louis in the offseason after two seasons with the Twins. He began the season on the IL with a right hamstring strain, but came off the IL on April 9. In two starts this season, he hasn’t allowed a run in 11 innings. He also has 11 strikeouts and has not walked a batter. He has been a little limited in pitch count so far, throwing just 64 and 72 pitches in those starts.
Prediction
The Brewers offense gives them the advantage in this series, but it’s going to be closer than would be expected. Facing Sonny Gray in game three will be tough, but the Brewers have potential advantages in the first two games. I’ll predict a 2-1 series win.