Crew finishes up last road trip of first half in Miami over 4th of July weekend
The Milwaukee Brewers are set to wrap up their final road trip this 4th of July weekend in Florida, as they’ll take on the Miami Marlins for three games. Entering Thursday’s games, the Brewers sit in second place in the NL Central and in the second spot for the NL Wild Card race, 1⁄2 game behind the Mets and two games ahead of the Padres.
On the other side, the Marlins, at 39-46, are 6.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot, but don’t let that record fool you: they’ve won 10 of 12 games dating back to June 20. That includes series wins over the Braves (2-1), Giants (3-0), D-backs (3-0), and Twins (2-1).
Milwaukee will get a big name back this weekend in Brandon Woodruff, but more on him below. Injuries for the Crew at this point include Nestor Cortes, Garrett Mitchell, Blake Perkins, Rob Zastryzny, Robert Gasser, Connor Thomas, Thomas Pannone, and J.B. Bukauskas. Cortes and Perkins could both return in the next couple of weeks, while Mitchell, Thomas, and Bukauskas are all out for the season. Zastryzny’s return is TBD as he went on the IL with a rib injury earlier this week, and Gasser is targeting a mid-August return from Tommy John surgery.
For the Marlins, Max Meyer, Braxton Garrett, and Griffin Conine are all out for the season. Ryan Weathers is expected to return in August or September, Andrew Nardi is expected to return in July, and Jesus Tinoco could return in the coming days or weeks.
The Brewers’ offense is led by Christian Yelich, who is hitting .259/.337/.460 with 17 homers, 61 RBIs, 43 runs, and 12 steals in 81 games this year. Jackson Chourio is second on the team with 14 homers, while also stealing 15 bags. Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Rhys Hoskins, and William Contreras have also been solid, while Isaac Collins, Joey Ortiz, and Caleb Durbin have provided more recent value. As a team, the Brewers are hitting .247/.323/.383 (.706 OPS ranks 17th) with 84 homers (tied for 22nd), 407 runs (eighth), and 99 steals (third).
Kyle Stowers and Agustín Ramírez have both had breakout seasons for the Marlins, as Stowers is hitting .283/.357/.514 with 15 homers, 45 RBIs, and 39 runs. Ramírez is in the conversation for NL Rookie of the Year, as he’s hitting .248/.296/.479 with 13 homers, 35 RBIs, and 33 runs in 61 games thus far. Otto Lopez, Jesús Sánchez, Eric Wagaman, Liam Hicks, and Dane Myers have also provided solid value, while Xavier Edwards provides the speed with 15 steals this year. As a team, the Marlins are hitting .254/.317/.390 (.707 OPS ranks 16th) with 75 homers (26th), 360 runs (19th), and 69 steals (10th).
Jared Koenig and Abner Uribe are tied for the team lead with 40 appearances each, though Uribe’s 2.25 ERA and 53 strikeouts far outpace Koenig’s 4.15 ERA and 33 strikeouts. Grant Anderson, Nick Mears, and Trevor Megill all have sub-3.00 ERAs, while DL Hall and Aaron Ashby have both been solid since returning from injury. As a pitching staff, the Brewers have a 3.79 team ERA (13th), including a 3.48 starter ERA (sixth) and a 4.19 reliever ERA (21st). They’ve struck out 730 batters (14th) in 764 1⁄3 innings.
Ronny Henriquez leads the Marlins with 39 appearances, as he sports a 2.79 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 42 innings. Anthony Bender (2.19 ERA, 27 strikeouts), Lake Bachar (3.38 ERA, 42 strikeouts), and Cade Gibson (2.39 ERA, 18 strikeouts) have also been solid, while Calvin Faucher leads the team with eight saves in 12 opportunities. Valente Bellozo, Tyler Phillips, and Josh Simpson are also in the bullpen for Miami. As a pitching staff, the Marlins have a 4.75 team ERA (26th), including a 5.15 starter ERA (28th) and a 4.28 reliever ERA (23rd). They’ve struck out 668 batters (25th) in 758 innings.
Probable Pitchers
Friday, July 4 @ 6:10 p.m.: Quinn Priester (3.35 ERA, 3.97 FIP) vs. Sandy Alcantara (6.98 ERA, 4.69 FIP)
Priester has been solid since joining the Crew earlier this year, as he has a 3.35 ERA and 3.97 FIP with 61 strikeouts across 78 innings. He had the best start of his young career last time out against the Rockies, as he worked seven scoreless frames with 11 strikeouts, allowing just one hit and a pair of walks in a 5-0 victory. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last 10 outings, dating back to early May. He’s made one career appearance against the Marlins, going 5 1⁄3 innings with four runs allowed and three strikeouts while with the Pirates in 2023.
Alcantara, 29, won the NL Cy Young in 2022 but has struggled this year after missing last season due to injury. In 16 starts this season, he has a 6.98 ERA and 4.69 FIP, with 63 strikeouts over 80 innings. He’s also accumulated -1.3 bWAR, which is far and away the worst number of his career. After making a few OK starts to begin June, he struggled in his last start against the D-backs, allowing seven runs on 10 hits over six innings, though his offense bailed him out to win in extras. In six career appearances (four starts) against Milwaukee, he has a 2.25 ERA with 26 strikeouts over 32 innings.
Saturday, July 5 @ 3:10 p.m.: Chad Patrick (3.51 ERA, 3.42 FIP) vs. Cal Quantrill (5.42 ERA, 4.58 FIP)
After a few recent rough outings, many figured Patrick would be the odd man out in the rotation with Brandon Woodruff returning. He’ll get at least one more shot at it this weekend as he looks to bounce back to start July. He has a 3.51 ERA and 3.42 FIP for the year but he struggled for a stretch in June. Before going five scoreless against the Rockies in his last start, he allowed 13 runs over 15 innings in losses against the Braves, Cubs, and Pirates. In fact, the Brewers haven’t won a game in which he’s started since May 31 in Philadelphia. This is his first career start against the Marlins.
Quantrill, the former long-time Guardian, signed a one-year deal with the Marlins this offseason, but he hasn’t performed well thus far. Through 16 starts, he has a 5.42 ERA and 4.58 FIP with 56 strikeouts over 73 innings. He hasn’t really been good since his 2022 season, when he had a 3.38 ERA over 32 starts, as his ERA has hovered at or above 5.00 since that time. He’s been just OK in his last few outings, allowing seven runs over 13 2⁄3 innings against the Phillies, Giants, and D-backs, though the Marlins won all of those games. In two career appearances (one start), Quantrill has allowed two runs over 5 2⁄3 innings (3.18 ERA) with three strikeouts.
Sunday, July 6 @ 12:40 p.m.: Brandon Woodruff (season debut) vs. Edward Cabrera (3.41 ERA, 3.83 FIP)
The moment we’ve all been waiting for. Woodruff, 32, hasn’t pitched in a major league game since the end of 2023, marking 649 days between starts. He’s faced a myriad of injuries and setbacks in the last two years, but he’s finally set to make his long-awaited return on Sunday against the Marlins, the same team he faced in his last MLB appearance in 2023. Over seven career seasons, he has a 3.10 ERA, 3.19 FIP, and 788 strikeouts over 680 1⁄3 innings. He’s made four career starts against Miami, with a 2.77 ERA and 24 strikeouts over 26 innings.
Cabrera has been a bright spot in Miami’s rotation this season, as he’s quietly turned in a solid season with a 3.41 ERA, 3.83 FIP, and 75 strikeouts over 71 1⁄3 innings across 14 starts. The 27-year-old righty went seven scoreless frames against the Twins in his last appearance, and he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since April, as he’s lowered his ERA from 7.23 since that time. He’s made three career appearances (two starts) against Milwaukee, with a 2.13 ERA and 15 strikeouts across 12 2⁄3 innings.
How to Watch
Friday, July 4: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network
Saturday, July 5: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network
Sunday, July 6: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network
Prediction
This Miami squad has looked great the last few weeks, as they’re quickly closing the gap for playoff contention. Still, I think the Marlins will lose some of that mojo this weekend as the Brewers take two of three.