Minor League Film Room #1: Brock Wilken

Breaking down Wilken’s approach over the last few seasons

Milwaukee used their first-round selection in the 2023 draft on Wake Forest third baseman Brock Wilken, who finished his career as the all-time ACC home run leader. Here’s an excerpt of Baseball America’s scouting report from when he entered the draft:

Wilken has amassed 71 home runs over three seasons, with a .299/.419/.679 career slash line over 173 games. During his 2023 draft season, he hit over .300 for the first time in his career, set Wake Forest’s single-season home run record with 31, became the career home run leader for the program, and finished No. 2 in the country for total home runs. Wilken has 70-grade raw power. He can launch a baseball out of any park, from foul pole to foul pole, and in 2023, he posted a 94.6 mph average exit velocity and 108.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. That power does come with questions about his pure hitting ability, though Wilken in 2023 attempted to answer those questions by hitting for the highest average of his career, nearly doubling his walk rate from 2022 and significantly improving his contact vs. sliders — which he previously whiffed on at an alarming rate.

In his first season in the minors (2023), Wilken slashed .289/.427/.438 in 121 at-bats with High-A Wisconsin. He walked in 27 of his 150 plate appearances with the Timber Rattlers, which works out to an (excellent) 18% walk rate. Wilken struck out 21.3% of the time, which (per Fangraphs) is usually somewhere between average and below average depending on the season.

Last season, however, was a different story. In a much larger sample size (471 plate appearances against better competition with Double-A Biloxi, Wilken slashed just .199/.312/.363. His strikeout percentage shot all the way up to 28.2%. For context, that same Fangraphs chart lists an “awful” strikeout percentage as roughly 27.5%.

Despite the rise in strikeouts, Wilken still managed to post a league-average wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) of 103. Wilken’s wOBA (weighted on base percentage) was .321, which is also basically league average. The peripherals look better than his slash line because Wilken, despite finishing the season under the Mendoza line, led the Shuckers in home runs (17) and finished second in walks (63, 13.4% walk rate) to Darrien Miller (64). No other Shucker walked more than 45 times last season. He wasn’t making contact often, but would barrel up the ball when he did.

All this is to say that Wilken has lived up to that Baseball America scouting report thus far. He’s consistently hit for power since joining the Brewers organization, and his ability to draw walks has mostly carried over. Wilken has slashed .222/.357/.403 as a minor leaguer, so the question of his “pure hitting ability” has yet to be fully answered.

I’m responsible for writing Brew Crew Ball’s weekly minor league roundup column, so I’ve been keeping half an eye on Wilken. Frankly, for much of the season, he hadn’t been posting numbers worth writing about, especially because of how many exciting prospects the Brewers have in the lower minors right now.

However, a couple of comments from users cmow and wiguy94 brought a trend to my attention. Wilken — through his first 62 plate appearances this season — was slashing just .163/.419/.326. An ugly slash line, no doubt. However, even through that rough stretch, he posted the best wRC+ of his career — 126.

Wilken’s advanced stats look good, even during a slump, because he’s squaring the ball up and hitting for power when he does hit the ball. Like Joey Gallo in his best seasons, he has been creating more runs than a replacement-level player without hitting for a high average. Gallo, in 2021, made the All-Star team and put up 4.5 WAR. He finished first in the majors in strikeouts (213) and second in walks (111). His batting average? .199.

Wilken’s strikeout rate remained basically the same as last year, at 29.0%. His walk rate, through those 62 plate appearances, ballooned up to 30.6% (13.4% last year). This paints the picture of an overly passive hitter. Wilken’s approach, through much of his career, was to wait for the perfect pitch to drive. A high walk rate is usually a good thing, but if coupled with a high strikeout rate and low batting average, it may mean that the hitter isn’t aggressive enough.

His chase rate last year, per Baseball America, was 22% — significantly below league average, which usually sits around 30%. According to Baseball America, Wilken only swung at 66% of in-zone pitches.

In other words, Wilken took one out of every three pitches thrown to him in the zone. This is much closer to all-or-nothing power hitters like Kyle Schwarber (career 62.6%) and Gallo (71.0%) than elite all-around hitters like Freddie Freeman (77%) and Giancarlo Stanton (78%). Even a guy like Matt Olson is much closer to those guys (76%) than Wilken.

The video below is footage of Wilken playing in the Cape Cod League in 2021. The first at-bat shown (a four-pitch walk) isn’t indicative of anything, as only one of the four consecutive balls thrown was anywhere near the zone. In his next at-bat against the same pitcher, Wilken again takes five of the six pitches thrown to him (one of those a checked swing) despite a couple of them being very, very close to the zone. He ends up working a 3-2 count before walking again. The one pitch he swings at is a fastball up and in, the bread and butter of pull hitters like Wilken.

Wilken’s third at-bat is much of the same. He takes the first two pitches (one of them a fastball right down the middle) before jumping on another fastball. Unfortunately, he’s out on his front foot and can’t square the ball up. His fourth at-bat is another walk, and his fifth at-bat is a hard hit line drive on a fastball right down the middle of the zone — as good of a pitch as you’re going to get.

Wilken’s selectivity at this level could have been chalked up to knowing that pitchers are going to try to pitch around him. I, personally, would rather pitch to any other college hitter, not the guy who broke the ACC home run record and would go on to be a first-round pick.

The next video is from Wilken’s rehab stint in the 2024 Arizona Fall League.

Wilken does jump on the first strike he sees, popping it up to shallow right. In his next at-bat, he works the count to 2-2, taking what looks like two very hittable pitches. He then squares up the next pitch, but it’s caught on the warning track. I don’t see Wilken chase anything egregious in either video, which tracks with his 22% chase rate.

The AFL film does show a couple of different examples of Wilken taking the first strike and then barreling up the ball — for example, a monster home run at 2:25 after taking a breaking ball for a strike. However, Wilken ends up with two-strike counts more than he did in the Cape Cod film.

His strikeout percentage in 2024 was pretty bad (28.2%), but his chase rate, walk rate, and power numbers were good. Wilken isn’t chasing frequently and is still striking out a lot, which means that opposing pitchers aren’t afraid to throw strikes against him.

The reasonable conclusion is that Wilken, through 62 plate appearances, isn’t striking out because he’s chasing pitches out of the zone, or because he has trouble timing the ball (which would be reflected in his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity). He’s striking out because he’s taking pitches he should be swinging at.

The best stat to back up this assertion would be his called third strike percentage, which I can’t find despite having spent an inordinate amount of time trying to do so (a challenge for you, reader). Wilken’s stats in his last 61 plate appearances, courtesy of Baseball Reference and user wiguy94, also support that conclusion.

First 62 plate appearances – .163/.419/.326, 126 wRC+, 30.6% BB-rate, 29.0% K-rate

Last 61 plate appearances – .244/.443/.556, 190 wRC+, 21.3% BB-rate, 23.0% K-rate

As you can see, Wilken has cut down significantly on walks and strikeouts. That, plus his .244 batting average, proves that Wilken is making contact more often. He already sported a wRC+ far better than his slash line, but his wRC+ in his last 62 plate appearances has skyrocketed.

Case in point — this home run Wilken hit on Sunday. It’s a perfect pitch, but go back and watch the film from the Cape Cod League. I saw him take a hittable 2-0 pitch for a strike at least three times.

This is his second at-bat of the day — the first ended with three consecutive called strikes. Now, up in the count 2-0, watch how Wilken adjusts:

Same thing with this home run. Per the Baseball America scouting report, Wilken’s biggest hole was an inability to hit sliders. With a 2-1 count, he could have recognized the slider and taken it, holding out for a better pitch — I saw this a couple times in the AFL film. Not here. Braves prospect Landon Harper hangs a slider out over the middle of the plate, and Wilken demolishes it.

One final example is this RBI double from last week. Wilken, facing a 2-1 count, gets a pitch that is high, almost out of the zone, but still a strike. He understands that with a runner on third, a flyout still means an RBI. Compare this to 3:10 in the Cape Cod film. Wilken, down 0-1 in the count, takes a perfect pitch — a few inches lower — for a strike. This time, instead of taking the pitch and hoping that the umpire bails him out, he turns on it and one-hops it off the left field wall.

Normally, I wouldn’t be advocating for a power hitter to be less passive. A lot of hitters with good power numbers are hackers, swinging at everything near the zone. Think Javy Baez, or Salvador Perez in 2021. Perez hit 48 home runs that year despite a walk rate of 3.4%, a 47.6% chase rate, and a 26.2% strikeout rate. He managed to hit .273 despite swinging at one out of every two balls out of the zone, but his OBP was only .316.

Wilken isn’t that type of hitter — he’s always been the type to wait for his pitch. He’s always had a lower-than-average contact rate and a higher-than-average hard-hit rate. That hasn’t changed, but what has changed over the last 60ish plate appearances is his approach. Wilken isn’t passive anymore when he’s up in the count. He’s getting better at jumping on pitches he can hit instead of taking up in the count almost by default. Wilken hits the ball harder than most, so in theory, he would benefit from swinging more. So far, that has proven to be the case.

The final piece of the puzzle with Wilken is an injury suffered last year. Wilken missed about a month of the 2024 season after being hit in the face by a 94-mph fastball (hence, the rehab stint in the AFL). Luckily, the jaw protector took the brunt of the force, but Wilken still suffered multiple facial fractures.

On one hand, his stats in (very limited) time with Biloxi in 2023 were pretty similar to his 2024 stats, so I don’t want to say the injury definitively affected Wilken’s approach. He also still led Biloxi in home runs last year despite missing significant time.

On the other hand, Wilken told MLB Pipeline before the season that his left “eye (was) severely damaged” and was “working in the 50th percentile in depth perception.” He spent the offseason rehabbing it with a physical therapist in the offseason. It’s very possible that the change in approach from 2023 to 2024 (walking less and striking out more) and increased passivity were both due to Wilken not seeing the ball as well as he used to.

The change in approach could have also been psychological. When I was in high school, I got hit in the same spot as Wilken (the jaw protector) with an 85-ish mph fastball. Luckily, I didn’t fracture it, but having a swollen, bruised face and busted lip wasn’t fun. It took me a while to restore my confidence at the plate after.

Wilken has said as much: “Then mentally, it was a grind. Trying to be in the box like, ‘Oh gosh, am I going to get hit again?’ It was a lingering thought.”

Either way, it seems clear that the key to Wilken continuing his success is to be slightly more aggressive. If Wilken can cut down on the strikeouts (and even the walks) while continuing to hit the ball hard and keeping his chase rate somewhere around league average, he should be back on track after what was somewhat of a lost season last year. Let’s hope this is the beginning of a breakout.

Who would you like to see covered in our next “Minor League Film Room?” Comment your ideas below to be considered for future coverage!