Woody’s return is finally almost here. The Brewers have right-hander Brandon Woodruff listed as their probable starter for Sunday’s game against the Marlins. He is currently on the 60-day injured list and will need to be reinstated to the 40-man roster, though that should be as easy as transferring outfielder Garrett Mitchell the other way. Mitchell is currently on the 10-day IL but is out for the season due to shoulder surgery. The Brewers would still need to open an active roster spot.
The start will mark the end of an injury odyssey of almost two years. Woodruff last pitched in a major league game on September 23rd of 2023. Coincidentally, that game was at loanDepot Park, the same venue where Woodruff will take the mound in a few days.
After that start in Miami, Woodruff was sidelined by an injury to his throwing shoulder. Shortly thereafter, he required surgery to repair the anterior capsule in that shoulder. At the time of that procedure, it was expected that Woodruff would miss most or all of the 2024 season.
There’s never a good time for such a surgery but it was particularly awkward since that was slated to be his final arbitration year, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a salary of $11.6MM. The Brewers reportedly discussed some trades but ultimately just non-tendered Woodruff, sending him to free agency. The two sides were eventually able to reunite on a backloaded two-year deal. The $17.5MM guarantee was spread out as a $2.5MM salary in 2024, a $5.5MM salary in 2025 and then a $10MM buyout on a $20MM mutual option. That deal allowed the Brewers to hang onto Woodruff for his recovery and eventual return to the mound, while kicking most of the financial commitment down the road.
Woodruff did eventually miss the entire 2024 season. There once seemed to be a chance for him to return to the mound early in 2025, but that path had a few twists and turns. He began a rehab assignment in April but was pulled off of that in May due to right ankle tendinitis. He restarted that rehab but a comebacker struck his throwing elbow in early June, setting him back yet again. He restarted the rehab once more, throwing 82 pitches for Nashville on Sunday.
It’s anyone’s guess what Woodruff can provide after such a long time away, but he had a really strong run prior to the shoulder problems. From 2019 to 2023, he tossed 595 innings with a 2.93 earned run average, 30% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 41.5% ground ball rate.
This year, he has logged 42 minor league innings with a 2.79 ERA. His 20.6% strikeout rate is well down from his pre-surgery form. His fastball is averaging 91.9 miles per hour in his Triple-A starts this year, well down from the 96-97 mph range he was in a few years ago. Perhaps he is still ramping up his strength from the long layoff, with the stop-and-start nature of his rehab presumably not helping.
Time will tell what kind of performance the Brewers get from Woodruff, but he joins an increasingly crowded rotation picture. That’s a remarkable turn of events compared to a few months ago, when the club was scrambling to patch the starting group together.
As of today, the Milwaukee rotation consists of Freddy Peralta, Chad Patrick, Jacob Misiorowski, Jose Quintana and Quinn Priester. Peralta’s strikeout rate is down a bit but he has a 2.91 ERA on the year. Misiorowski had a wobble in his most recent start but was dominant in his first three. Patrick has a 3.51 ERA on the year while Priester is at 3.35, though the latter is getting more grounders and fewer strikeouts. Quintana has a 3.30 ERA, though with some shaky peripherals.
Despite some early-season injuries, the Brewers have built up a rotation surplus. They optioned guys like Logan Henderson and Tobias Myers to Triple-A. They were going to bump Aaron Civale to the bullpen until he asked for a trade and was flipped to the White Sox. Now Woodruff is going to be added into the mix. Nestor Cortes, who has been sidelined since April due to a flexor strain, started a rehab assignment with three innings for Nashville yesterday. Robert Gasser, recovering from last year’s Tommy John surgery, could be a factor down the stretch.
The Brewers are clearly in win-now mode. Their 48-38 record puts them in possession of the second National League Wild Card spot, two games up on the Padres and Cardinals. Pitching surpluses have a tendency to disappear quickly but the Brewers have a tight budget and could perhaps use some of this pitching to bolster other parts of the roster. Woodruff, Quintana and Cortes are all impending free agents. Peralta’s deal has an affordable $8MM club option for 2026.
Photo courtesy of William Glasheen, Imagn Images