Brewers fall behind Reds in our edition of the power rankings as true competition in NL Central becomes clearer
Welcome to the sixth week of our NL Central Power Rankings! We’ll release these rankings each week to grade all five teams and place them one through five. As everyone knows with power rankings, these should be taken as gospel and they’re obviously 100% accurate. Without further ado, let’s rank some teams!
1. Chicago Cubs (20-13); 3-3 this week; 96.1% chance to make postseason (Baseball Reference)
The Cubs remain the cream of the crop in the NL Central, and even when they make mistakes, they find ways to win. They did have a subpar week, dropping the last two of their series with the Phillies before taking two of three from the Pirates in Pittsburgh. They’re in Milwaukee for the weekend in what is the first head-to-head test for the two squads.
Chicago’s offense ranks near the top in just about every statistical category, including runs scored (first), hits (first), doubles (fourth), triples (first), homers (third), steals (first), and OPS (second). Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, and Pete Crow-Armstrong have all been better than advertised, while Carson Kelly is on a different planet.
The pitching is a bit more iffy, but there are still bright spots. Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga are a good 1-2 punch in the absence of Justin Steele, while former Brewer Colin Rea has also pitched well to a 1.46 ERA across seven appearances (four starts). The bullpen is easily the worst aspect of this team, but Ryan Pressly, Julian Merryweather, and Caleb Thielbar have all had success.
2. Cincinnati Reds (18-15); 5-2 this week; 14.6% chance to make postseason
The Reds followed up a sweep of the Rockies over the weekend with a four-game split against the Cardinals. They’re now wrapping up their homestand against the Nationals at Great American Ballpark.
Cincinnati is built exactly opposite of Chicago, with a subpar offense and one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Offensively, Austin Hays came out of nowhere after an IL stint (though he’s back on the IL now) to hit five homers and drive in 13 in just 13 games, hitting .365/.431/.712. Elly De La Cruz is still their best offensive player, however, hitting .268/.347/.417 with five homers, 24 RBIs, and 13 steals. Noelvi Marte, Jose Trevino, and Gavin Lux have also had success, but that’s about it.
On the pitching side, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, and Andrew Abbott have all had solid seasons, with Singer’s 3.24 ERA actually the worst among the group. Starter-turned-reliever Graham Ashcraft has been lights out with a 0.57 ERA over 15 2⁄3 innings, while Tony Santillan, Taylor Rogers, Brent Suter, and Emilio Pagán have also been great — Pagan’s 2.35 ERA is the worst among that group. Not too shabby.
3. Milwaukee Brewers (16-17); 3-3 this week; 43.4% chance to make postseason
The Brewers ended up with a .500 week, but that’s less than ideal given they played the Cardinals and White Sox for five of those six games. They went 1-2 against St. Louis over the weekend, took two of three against the White Sox (but were still outscored as they lost 8-0 in the series finale), and lost the series opener to the Cubs.
Milwaukee’s offense has been fine, not great. The usual suspects (Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and Jackson Chourio) are all playing worse than usual, but Brice Turang and Sal Frelick have been better than expected. It still hasn’t been enough to make up for the lack of offense from the others.
On the pitching side, the rotation has been (mostly) solid, as Freddy Peralta, Chad Patrick, and Jose Quintana have all been solid. Quinn Priester started hot but hasn’t been good in his last two appearances against the Cardinals and Cubs. From the bullpen, Nick Mears, Jared Koenig, and Abner Uribe have carried the group, while Trevor Megill has been wild at times, a cause for concern when it comes to closing down games.
4. St. Louis Cardinals (14-19); 3-4 this week; 4.7% chance to make postseason
After taking two of three over the Crew last weekend, the Cardinals split four games with the Reds this week, sweeping the doubleheader on Wednesday. They’re now taking on the Mets in New York.
Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan are the leaders of this offense. Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras are contributing but well past their primes, while young guys like Masyn Winn, Victor Scott, and Jordan Walker have had ups and downs. As a squad, I’d say they’re about even with the Brewers offensively.
The rotation isn’t great, but Sonny Gray and Matthew Liberatore are both solid arms. Steven Matz has been solid in a relief/starter swing role, making nine appearances (two starts) and spanning 24 innings. Phil Maton, Kyle Leahy, and closer Ryan Helsley is a solid trio to close down games, as we saw last weekend.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (12-21); 1-5 this week; <0.1% chance to make postseason
The Pirates dropped two of three against the Dodgers before losing two of three to the Cubs. Rough week. I’d say the Pirates are firmly in the dumps. They now play host to the Padres for the weekend.
Oneil Cruz has slugged eight homers and stolen 14 bases, but his defense is simply terrible. Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen are solid veteran leaders, Joey Bart is hitting .282, and that’s about it for the measly Pirates offense.
Paul Skenes and Andrew Heaney at the top of the rotation are the only real saving graces for this team, as Skenes has a 2.74 ERA and Heaney has a 2.50 ERA. Justin Lawrence has been great out of the bullpen, allowing just one run over 11 1⁄3 innings (0.79 ERA), while Chase Shugart and closer Dennis Santana have also been solid with sub-1.50 ERAs.